URC Week 1 Preview
Ulster vs Dragons
First Welsh game of the new season, and it looks to be a redemption match for both sides. Ulster will look to improve on their below-par season last year, while the Dragons will try to leverage their new trades to overpower their Irish opposition. While Ulster have the pedigree, the home advantage, and would normally be clear-cut favourites on history alone, this is by no means an easy call by virtue of how improved the Dragons promise to be.
This could easily turn into a battle of backs vs forwards, as Ulster have benched Juarno Augustus for the time being and Angus Bell is on Rugby Championship duty. The Belfast group will want to move fast to avoid physical matches with a full-strength Dragons team, and with Stockdale on the wing and the experienced McCloskey in at 12, they could easily overwhelm them. On the other hand, Wyn Jones and Robert Hunt are destructive scrummagers, and Aaron Wainwright can manifest tries from thin air if the Dragons get in close.
This really depends on who’s gameplan gets firing first, and the Dragons almost pulled it off when they led at half-time last year. Plus, Rhodri Williams and Tinus de Beer is a much more seasoned half-back pairing than Nathan Doak and Jack Murphy; in a duel where game-management will matter, they might just kick their way to victory. Izuchukwu has been moved to 16 to try and contain the pack, but with Mackenzie Martin and Levi Douglas bringing impact from the bench, it could be close.
Key Matchup: Nathan Doak vs Rhodri Williams, two of their regions’ star players, will try to manifest their will over the game, but who will win in the battle between youth & experience?
Players to Watch: Matthew Screech on his 200th game for Dragons will try to impose himself on the lineout and as a carrier, while Jacob Stockdale will aim to start the season with a run of tries as per usual.
Prediction: Ulster 28 – Dragons 24 It’ll be a tough contest, but Ulster will refuse to concede a game on their first home match of the season, and will barely edge ahead. However, the men of Gwent will prove they are a force to be reckoned with.
Bulls vs Ospreys
It’s never easy going to Loftus Versfeld, especially on the first week of the tournament. Nevertheless, the Ospreys will try to aim to break the line of a Springboks-less Bulls team to open the season with an away win very few are expecting them to achieve. To do so, they will likely need to play fast, kick long, and disrupt the Bulls’ powerful setpiece while surviving the scrum.
With Ross Moriarty set to make his debut for the region and Harri Deaves moved to the 7 jersey, some new combinations have been tried out by Mark Jones to possibly rest key players for what might be a brutal two weeks in South Africa. Phil Cokanasiga makes a rare start alongside Kieran Williams, who’s shown to be more than capable of making international-grade clean breaks, while youngsters Tom Florence and Harri Houston appear from the bench. For the hosts, Jan Serfontein and David Kriel should make a similarly dangerous centre partnership, while Springbok loosehead Gerhard Steenekamp returns after a long battle with injury.
The pundits have a point; the Bulls are the second strongest team in the league and they match the Ospreys blow-for-blow in most areas. If they are able to control the pace of the game, there isn’t much the visitors can do here, but if the Ospreys make a good start, the Bulls may not recover in time. Like against Leinster last year, this will be more a test of how far their indomitable willpower can take them and who among their players stands out in a new era for Welsh rugby.
Key Matchup: Cobus Wiese vs Rhys Davies; new Springbok vs emerging Welsh lock. Both are powerful players who like to throw their physicality around, but the lineout may determine which team gets control over the game.
Players to Watch: Ross Moriarty returning to Welsh rugby, bringing his experience from the Pro D2 to bash into the Bulls’ defence, while Johan Grobelaar is dominant in both the scrum and lineout, and will seek to maul the Ospreys’ pack out of Pretoria.
Prediction: Bulls: 35 – Ospreys 10 Not the start to the season the Ospreys will want, but if they can reduce the points conceded, they can hopefully come away with a bonus point. Loftus Versfeld is a fortress for a reason though.
Scarlets vs Munster
While the Scarlets remain mostly unchanged from the Top 8 achievers last season, Munster have a new coach and have lost three of their most experienced players, and are down Tadhg Beirne after B&I Lions duty. Still, this will be far from an easy battle for the Scarlets. Possibly the toughest to call of the Welsh games.
Jake Ball returns to Llanelli to try and contain Munster’s powerful maul and lineout, but with almost all of the region’s Welsh internationals alongside him, it’s not an impossible task. A fully international back three of Mee, Rogers, and Murray will play with tempo and look to play around the visitors’ reliable defence, but Craig Casey is a fast man himself, and Munster’s exit out of the ruck could give the likes of Josh Macleod and Taine Plumtree some trouble. They’re quite evenly-matched overall, so we’ll see if both sides’ new centre combinations could turn the tide.
Munster have an unfortunate reputation for choking early-season games that they probably should win, and they would’ve probably appreciated an easier fixture, but the Scarlets’ inconsistent discipline could cost them this one just as easily. If we were at Thomond Park, this would be a very different discussion, as last season’s rout proved.
Key Matchup: The experience and box-kicking tactics of Gareth Davies versus the younger, more fast-paced runner of Craig Casey, as the breakdown exits might be the deciding factor of this game.
Players to Watch: Blair Murray will aim to convert his counter-attacking mastery into points for his region, while Thaakir Abrahams might exploit any gaps out wide the Scarlets leave trying to contain the pack.
Prediction: Scarlets 21 – Munster 28 Though not the tightest score, the hardest game for me to call this weekend. Scarlets did lose to the Dragons in pre-season, and they’ll need to really put the pressure on Clayton MacMillan’s men, but Munster work well under pressure, and will aim to remedy their weak start last year.
Cardiff vs Lions
Night time at the Arms Park, and Cardiff will relish an opening against what is a relatively weak Lions squad compared to what they beat last year; no Morne van dan Berg could give Cardiff control over the midfield, and no Francke Horn will help Alex Mann and Taine Basham at the breakdown. It’s hard to predict the Lions in general, though, so they can;t afford to be complacent.
Cardiff have fielded several debutantes; Javan Sebastian and Rhys Barratt partner in the scrum, while Ioan Lloyd aims to bring some versatility and fast footwork form the bench. Josh Adams is both an excellent finisher and surprisingly savvy defender, while Tom Bowen aims to strike back after his exceptional debut against the Sharks last season. Meanwhile, Nico Steyn will try to ignite the Lions’ flair and tear apart one of the league’s best defenders last seasons, while Weapon X Henco Van Wyk is one of is region’s best players, and could carry his side to the try line.
All that said, this is far from an easy ride for Cardiff; Matt Sherratt just left and took his offensive running-rugby tactics with him, and no one is pretending the hosts have the stronger scrum; Rhys Barratt has his work cut out for him against Springbok Asenathi Ntlabakanye, who is 29 kilos heavier and a much more frequent starter. Plus, until a very close game last season, Cardiff had never beaten the Lions in this competition before, so if they concede too many penalties, this could easily go the other way.
Key Matchup: Cam Winnett vs Quan Horn; both two of their regions’ best players, and both incredibly strong counter attackers in a game where kicking and game control could go either way.
Players to Watch: Tom Bowen, who’s proven capable of easily outmanoeuvring South African defences in the past, and Angelo Davids, who has been electric for his side in the Currie Cup
Prediction: Cardiff: 24 – Lions 15. The pressure of the Arms Park has quashed stronger teams, and while they could crumble under the pressure of the visitors’ physicality, Cardiff have the best chance of the Welsh regions at a victory here. They’ll need to be solid in kicking and keep errors to a minimum, but they provided an almighty defensive effort last season, and replicating that should be enough to keep the Lions at bay.
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