My Wales Squad Reaction & Japan Preview –
Autumn Nations Championship 2026
A new campaign is starting, and Tandy has named a bigger-than-expected 39-man squad to take on Japan, New Zealand, and Australia at the Principality. Overall, a fairly conservative selection, with the majority of players being retained from the Nations Championship selection but with the addition of 3 uncapped players and some key returners. Let’s dive into it
Props:
At loosehead Rhys Carré and Nicky Smith unsurprisingly get in, despite the Carré not having played for Saracens yet this season, showing his value to the squad. With Wales’ setpiece slowly improving, both are likely to play if fit, as the former remains one of their best carrying options and the latter is their best scrummager.
Gareth Thomas, meanwhile, is retained in the squad as the third-choice loosehead, as a balance between the two in terms of skillset. His workrate and scrum ability are powerful, though if he is to keep his place for the World Cup he’ll likely need to tighten up his performances, as he’s become more inconsistent than usual. Rhys Barratt is also added as cover, given Carré and placement in England along with Smith. He could also be an effective bench option with his carrying ability, though will maybe need to train his scrummaging before he becomes an international regular.
At tighthead, Tomas Francis and Archie Griffin return, and it wouldn’t be too surprising if they are who makes the 23 given their past exploits for Wales. Francis looks right at home in Sale’s powerful scrum, while Griffin has enjoyed a lot more minutes at Bath with the departure of Thomas du Toit and hasn’t looked out of place. The latter’s youth is backed by his greater dynamism and workrate around the park; the tighthead foil to Carré where Francis is to Nicky Smith. Dillon Lewis gets in ahead of Ben Warren as the probable third-choice, though his experience and summer form could yet win him a space in the 23.
Wales’ scrum has been a weakness in the past, but under Paul James’ guidance, it seems to be going in the right direction.
Hookers:
Dewi Lake and Ryan Elias continue their partnership, with Lake leading his new home to the top of the PREM while Elias carries a struggling Scarlets pack. Both are comfortable pushing through defenders and landing dominant tackles, and if Wales seek a physical advantage, they’ll be valuable members of the front five, especially with Lake retaining his captaincy from the summer.
Elliot Dee is very unlucky to miss out, though. The most experienced option, Dee has been instrumental to the Dragons’ strong season start and is playing some of his best rugby ever, but Tandy has left him out in favour of the more dynamic Liam Belcher. Belcher is still clearly 3rd choice, but perhaps Tandy feels his workrate and work over the ball makes him the more effective bench option.
Locks:
Dafydd Jenkins returns having missed the summer tour, and he’ll be ready to pick up where he left off with Ben Carter partnering him in the second row. Both are tackle machines who bring considerable power to the setpiece, with Carter eclipsing the experienced Adam Beard in his lineout management and more visible impact on proceedings. Beard still makes it in, though, as tighthead locks with his experience are a rarity in Wales, although Rhys Davies would’ve been nice to see for his different skillset.
Teddy Williams stays on too, as he’ll make a good bench player thanks to his athleticism and lineout-disrupting ability. He’s been great for Cardiff at the beginning of the season, and fits in just as comfortably when given the opportunity for Wales. Seb Davies, however, is more of a surprise, though there’s always one with Tandy so far. Seb has played well with Ben Carter at Dragons, is a good helping hand with the lineout, and is more than physical enough on defence for Test rugby. His ability to cover 6 is also helpful, and presumably his experience and consistency gives him the edge over Freddie Thomas.
Back Row:
Jac and Waino were obvious shoo-ins, and should start every game. Mann and Botham would also be the favourites to complete the team at 6, with their powerful tackling and endless workrate making them great compliments to Morgan and Wainwright’s own strengths.
From there, Taine Basham has been rewarded for his great form for Cardiff this season and last, with his ability to take ownership of his team’s attacking momentum and past international experience being key benefits. Kane James is another similar player who could bring dynamism off the bench, and looks to have the makings of a world-class back rower later down the line. Lastly, Taine Plumtree rounds out the team with his versatility, large frame, and dynamic physicality on both sides of the ball, though given he’s headed to South Africa with the Scarlets, he may not be high up Tandy’s pecking order.
Tommy Reffell’s injury was unfortunately timed, and he may have made it in ahead of Plumtree or James, though when he returns he’s the kind of player who has little trouble being dropped into a test match. Tandy also made special mention of Taulupe Faletau; he sees him as an option for the World Cup, though resting him for the time being is the smart move given his injury record of late.
Scrum-Halfs:
Tomos Williams will start for the same reason he’s playing 70 minutes of most matches; he’s a world-class scrum-half and is instrumental to Wales’ game management. However, their over-reliance on him could prove costly at the World Cup. Still, Reuben Morgan-Williams should make a good deputy in Kieran Hardy’s absence. He’s more of an aggressive 9, able to snipe for opportunities around the ruck while still maintaining a solid kicking game to suit Wales’ structure.
Che Hope’s inclusion makes me very happy, though. Of the two backups, he seems the more likely to usurp Williams’ 9 jersey before the World Cup, which is a bold prospect, but if you’ve seen him play for Dragons, it makes sense. He plays with a similar forward-thinking mindset as Morgan-Williams, but at an even quicker pace and with a level of maturity not often seen from young 9s. He’s unlikely to get too much gametime, but is he beats RMW on the race to the 21 jersey, it could be fun to watch.
Fly-Halfs:
Not much to talk about; Edwards vs Costelow is the ongoing battle, with the confident and ambitious but occasionally overpowered Ospreys playmaker against the talented and controlled but sometimes timid Scarlets conductor. Joe Hawkins as a third-choice is interesting, as he seems to see himself as a 10 more than a 12 nowadays despite his persistent partnership with Eddie James in the centres, though this versatility seems to have given him the edge over Callum Sheedy.
Centres:
Eddie James is due to start, but who partners him will be the mystery, as will the jersey he wears on his back. Apparently Tandy sees him as a 13 more than a 12; I think he’s a better 12, but he’s Wales’ best option in either jersey either way. If he stays at 13, Joe Hawkins would be the bookies’ favourite, as their partnership was less dysfunctional and more unfulfilled in potential. However, with his form for Dragons, stronger defensive ability, and no-nonsense playstyle, I’d rather see Aneurin Owen at 12 than the less-assured Hawkins. The Scarlets man will still be in the mix for the World Cup, but he needs to sort out what he wants to be and focus on those strengths.
If James moves to 13, Max Llewellyn or Louie Hennessey are the options, though Owen is similarly comfortable as a 13. Both are large and powerful but agile centres, focusing on breaking lines rather than punching down walls and using their physicality to escape tackles. Llewellyn is the more assured option, with his international experience and more locked-in starting spot at Gloucester, though several former players have taken note of Hennessey’s potential to be a world-class 13. He’s sure to be more involved with Wales by next World Cup cycle, the question is whether or not now is too soon, especially as he remains injured and hasn’t yet played for Bath this season.
Wingers:
A similar toss-up. Louis Rees-Zammit is the only one who looks a sure bet to start; having moved back to the wing full-time, his world-class pace makes him a constant threat, and he has all the physical and aerial skills to compete in the modern game. With Wales in need of more sheer speed and cutting edge out wide, his place looks the most secure.
So far, Josh Adams has started the majority of tests, and while he probably has the most rounded skillset, his recent return from injury and slower pace makes a good case for others to start in his place, especially with Wales’ depth at wing. Ellis Mee and Rio Dyer would be frontrunners for me; the former having been a constant for Wales when not benched for Rees-Zammit, thanks to his ability to manage the aerial contest and smart decision making when under pressure, though his physicality on defence is sometimes lacking. Dyer is a good balance again; a bit more pace, smaller in frame but more than capable of defending his wing, and similarly solid under the high ball. He was the keystone of Wales’ effective kick-chase game a while back, and with Tandy’s appreciation for kick-focused play, he could merit a starting spot.
Gabriel Hamer-Webb also makes the squad, though I’m less sold on his point-of-difference in this setup. He’s clearly an international class winger, but his aerial skills that are so valuable to Leicester aren’t a rarity for Wales. Should Tandy elect to give him another chance after the Six Nations, though, he’ll likely make the most of it given his form for the Tigers. A shame to see Macs Page miss out, though given he’s only recently broken through for Scarlets on the wing, Tandy has picked the more experienced and consistent threats out wide. Page’s time will surely come, given his X-factor, but he’ll need to maintain that consistency for a while longer.
Fullbacks:
Blair Murray may not be the most solid under the high ball, but given Wales’ reliance on the kicking game, his excellent early-season form, and his unmatched agility, he’s the favourite to start against Japan. After that though, New Zealand and Australia have been looking for ways to improve their aerial dominance following defeats to the Springboks, so the more aerially-assured Tom Rogers will push for the jersey instead.
Though he’s only started there once so far for Ospreys, he won PotM when he did so, and given his existing international-level talents, there isn’t much case he couldn’t be just as effective in a Wales 15 jersey. Tandy has said he’s being “open-minded” on his best position, but given he was dropped for Mason Grady in the summer and the more in-form Macs Page has missed out, fullback seems the more likely jersey for Rogers.
My Starting XV for Japan
- Rhys Carré
- Dewi Lake
- Tomas Francis
- Dafydd Jenkins
- Ben Carter
- Alex Mann
- Jac Morgan
- Aaron Wainwright
- Tomos Williams
- Sam Costelow
- Rio Dyer
- Aneurin Owen
- Eddie James
- Louis Rees-Zammit
- Blair Murray
BENCH
- Ryan Elias
- Nicky Smith
- Archie Griffin
- Teddy Williams
- Taine Basham
- Che Hope
- Dan Edwards
- Max Llewellyn
Japan is the must-win game; Wales have beaten Italy and Fiji so far this calendar year, and Japan is the only other similar-strength opponent left. Wales won the same fixture last year, but it was a clumsy game neither side really “earned”. While Wales have certainly improved since then, their opponents have done the same, developing a clinical and fast-paced style of rugby that has also earned them wins against Italy and Fiji, though the closer nature of those victories compared to Wales is cause for some optimism. It wouldn’t be a shock loss, but one Tandy can’t much afford one year on from his appointment.
As for the forwards, Wales have the power to claim the setpiece advantage, though Rhys Carré’s injury problems might mean Rhys Barratt comes off the bench instead. Mann, Jenkins, and Carter are three very active tackle machines to take on a fast-moving team (though Botham could slot in as well) to pair with Jac Morgan in limiting opposing possession. However, the lineout will be a mighty weapon for Wales even more so, with Dewi Lake leading the driving maul and Aaron Wainwright being very difficult to stop at the back. Taine Basham can also fit into Wainwright’s jersey late game, or force him to the 6 jersey to provide an even more dynamic carrying option late game.
In the backs, I’ve chosen to respect Tandy’s plan to have Eddie James wear 13, though I’ve brought in Aneurin Owen for some more defensive workrate. Rio Dyer also comes in on the wing, though it’s a 50/50 between him and Ellis Mee. I think Dyer is more helpful for those defensive interventions against players like Ishida and Ueda, though they’re both solid in the air. Murray keeps his fullback jersey for now due to his counterattack potential, though he’ll probably lose it the week after. Costelow’s starting spot depends on his fitness; he’s being rested for now, but while he’s started the season in stronger form, Edwards rarely disappoints when called upon.
Wales can’t play at Japan’s pace; if they try to, they’ll be overwhelmed. This team is designed to wear them down and outwork them to regain possession and overpower them. Tandy is likely to try something similar given how well similar tactics worked last year, but they’ll need to be a lot more clinical if they are to record a second victory.
