URC Predictions – 2026-27 Season
With big names like Thomas du Toit, Cheslin Kolbe, Jamie Ritchie, and Ma’a Nonu all in the mix, this upcoming 2026-27 season of the United Rugby Championship looks to be hotly contested. While Leinster’s squad depth stands them in good stead to retain their title, there are plenty of teams who will look to challenge their space at the top or defeat their regional rivals. Let’s look at how I predict this season will go down.
16: Zebre Parma
While Tommaso Allan should bring some backline control, it’s hard to see how Zebre will keep up this season. They’ve consistently been one of the weakest teams in the league, and despite their solid start last year, they couldn’t win a single game after round 1. They don’t have any clear weapons beyond some standout players like Gesi and Stavile, and it’s likely they’ll be the whipping boys this time around too given their lack of clear improvements. A lot of their nicer matchups last year are now away fixtures, which won’t help.
15: Dragons RFC
There’s a lot of optimism around this Dragons side, so I feel bad putting them this low. As of right now though, while Tiatia has their playstyle down to a tee, there just isn’t much quality in the current Dragons side to make the most of it, leaving them with few comfortable matchups this season. Given how well they pushed teams like Sharks and Benetton last year, and after the thrashing they gave Connacht, we could see a lot of the same, but there are a lot fewer comfortable home fixtures this time around. Still, they’re in a good spot off the pitch, which will help out tremendously were they to improve on last year.
14: Edinburgh
A team which is not having as much fun off-pitch, the re-signing of Sean Everitt and the lack of high-quality recruitments leaves Edinburgh in an awkward spot following what was a fairly difficult last season. While they managed to finish 12th, their performances didn’t reflect a team that was confident in their ambition to make the playoffs. James Grayson will bring some more stability at 10, but they feel like they’re going in reverse as a side. Their strong pack should help them out against the weaker teams, but they feel a mile off Glasgow in terms of depth and quality. With a lot of young Scottish talent, this could be a much stronger side in a few years time, but it’d be surprising if they were any better this year.
13: Scarlets
Also in a tough spot off the field, but compared to their rivals in Swansea, the Scarlets’ signings don’t really strike fear into mid-tier sides. The Scarlets are in something of an identity crisis, as their strong setpiece that got them into playoffs two years ago has largely vanished while their strong attack out wide has been marred by indiscipline. They’ve brought in the experienced Gareth Anscombe, who should help Costelow out with game management, but it seems they’re only a few bad injuries again from the team that capitulated last season. They certainly have the quality for playoffs, but their execution is unlikely to be consistent enough.
12: Benetton Treviso
Benetton’s placement is buoyed by their weak shield, but while they’ve taken steps to alleviate their poor depth, international commitments will likely crush them. A new coach should at least give them enough of a boost to escape the bottom 4, but losing Menoncello will be a big hit to their attacking power. They’ve got some big threats out wide with Lynagh and Ratave, and with their Italian internationals on hand they can do some impressive things. But on the other side of the ball, they’re not as consistent, and they only won a single game away from home to Zebre last year. A new coach is unlikely to fix all of that.
11: Sharks
Sharks are tough to call, given they have one of the strongest setpieces in the league and Thomas du Toit will only elevate their destructive power. Still, they have fairly weak depth, and really hate playing outside of South Africa. With the Lions’ rise, someone is likely to come last in the South African derbies, and the departures of Grant Williams, Siya Kolisi, and Aphelele Fassi won’t help. They can completely destroy some impressive teams in Durban, but compared to their playoff run two years ago, they aren’t consistent enough to feel like a safe playoff choice next to their rivals.
10: Ospreys
You’d think the loss of Jac Morgan and Dewi Lake would make the Ospreys fall off. And it’s entirely possible they will, but Mark Jones has recruited strongly to give them a fairly powerful squad overall. Rogers and Koroibete should give them more threats out wide, while they have signed Liam Wright to mitigate Morgan’s departure. Like the Sharks, though, their lack of consistency hits them hard. They’ll need to cause some upsets or lock down the Welsh Shield if they are to make playoffs, which isn’t out of their reach, but they’re just as likely to blunder would-be victories as they are to cause upsets.
9: Munster
This was tough, but Munster feel like a team in decline thanks to their poor off-field management. McMillan had a rough first season in charge despite Munster’s strong start to the year, but it felt like they crawled into their playoff space and they certainly weren’t a dominant force. With Crowley being injured until the new year and their departures on the wing, their attack could face some real problems, as Thomond Park isn’t the fortress it once was. The old Munster side that was one of the toughest in Europe is in there somewhere, but they may need a sterner wake-up call before that happens.
8: Cardiff
Cardiff and Ospreys’ placement will probably come down to the Welsh Shield results, but while the Ospreys may end up weaker without Jac and Dewi, Cardiff look to be on the rise. Jarrod Evans’ return and Daniel Bowden’s appointment should upgrade their attack, which held them back a lot last year as they rely on defensive struggles to close out games. They do have some excellent power out wide, but haven’t been able to make the most of it in past seasons; should they do so, playoffs will feel like less of a fluke than last year, where they finished with a -19 differential. They’re also very reliant on home fixtures, but they still have some winnable away matchups to target.
7: Lions
Like Cardiff, the Lions are very reliant on home fixtures, but they score far more points than the former. Chris Smith has been the driving force of a progressively improving Johannesburg team, best shown by their far better performance against the touring All Blacks in pre-season than their rivals. New signings like Boan Venter, Dan Kasende, and Boeta Chamberlain should give them sufficient depth and quality to make the playoffs a second time, though it may take an away win or two to get there depending on whether they can replicate their derby day performances. They certainly don’t feel like the weakest South African side anymore.
6: Ulster
A young but quickly developing squad, Ulster were unlucky to miss playoffs last year, but should be even stronger this year. While their improved form has resulted in them being more affected by the international periods, their attack should be more than enough to carry them. Being in the Challenge Cup should make it easier to manage the workload of their players, too. While Ravenhill’s status as a fortress was tested last year, the team can travel well and should pick up more than enough wins to make it, provided they do reasonably well in the Irish derbies.
5: Bulls
Their departures will sting a lot, as they are unlikely to stay the dominant force of previous seasons. Players like Nortje, Arendse, and especially Wilco Louw gave the Bulls unmatched quality across the board. By contrast, while Hanro Liebenberg and Thaakir Abrahams look like great signings, their incomings don’t match the quality of their outgoings, which is concerning given their up-and-down performance last season. Still, the Bulls possess one of the strongest setpieces in the league, and should have no trouble making playoffs thanks to their unmatched physicality. They may need some time to re-gel before they can contend for the title again, though.
4: Connacht
Connacht are becoming really scary. Stuart Lancaster managed to take a team near the bottom of the league and turn them into a force capable of beating anyone; their victory over Stormers in Cape Town is unlikely to be a one-off. With the team in a much stronger place than they were this time last year, this doesn’t seem like an unrealistic placement for the end of the season. However, Champions Cup rugby and the loss of players to international selection gives Lancaster some new problems to contend with, and it’s unclear how they’ll adapt with their relatively weaker depth. Ciaran Frawley and the returning Mack Hansen should make them an even stronger side than last season, though, so I’m excited to see them at their best.
3: Leinster
Leinster have been the dominant force of the league two years in a row, despite their shaky start after the Lions tour. However, they look like a slightly weaker squad now. There are no Jordies or Ioanes from New Zealand, while they also haven’t signed a backup to Jamison Gibson-Park after Luke McGrath’s departure. This might make them weaker in the mid-season when they lack their international players, not helped by Connacht and Ulster’s improvements challenging them for the Irish Shield. Still, they’re Leinster. They should be in no risk of missing playoffs or a home quarter-final, and a third successive championship isn’t unlikely either.
2: Glasgow Warriors
Glasgow have lost Huw Jones and Jack Dempsey, which should be concerning, but with how well Stafford McDowall played last year and Jamie Ritchie signing on, they likely won’t be a worse side for it. They have solid depth across the board, even with their international contributions, and they compete with Europe’s best at full strength, so they’re certainly eyeing some silverware. Their fast, free-flowing attack will give everyone headaches, and Scotstoun is one of the toughest away fixtures one can play.
1: Stormers
With only three signings, Stormers have established that they are ready to aim for that home final. Louw, Kolisi, and Kolbe are world-class Springboks who should elevate an already strong Stormers side who were unlucky to miss finals the year before. There’s a great mix of experience and youth, able to mix a powerful and destructive setpiece with free-flowing attack seamlessly, allowing them to tweak their game depending on the opponent. They’ll face strong competition from their rivals in the South African derbies, but they look to have the strongest team of the four, and their depth won’t be challenged by this being a World Cup year.
Playoff Run:
QUARTERS
Stormers vs Cardiff: Same as last season; Cardiff may be improved, but the Stormers are on another level, especially at home.
Glasgow vs Lions: In Johannesburg, this could be an interesting result. In Scotstoun, it shouldn’t be much of a contest. Glasgow’s attack is a lot scarier than the Lions’.
Leinster vs Ulster: This would be an exciting quarter final, and a real grudge match. With their Ireland internationals, Leinster shouldn’t blunder this, but they may end up working for it.
Connacht vs Bulls: Dead even, could go either way depending on who shows up. With the improvements made to their setpiece and Lancaster’s structure, Connacht should just pull away from them at home.
SEMIS
Stormers vs Connacht: Connacht won here last year, so they’ll fancy their chances. They certainly aren’t to be written off, but they’ve come far enough. Stormers have more to lose, and would be desperate for another final.
Glasgow vs Leinster: This is another fixture that tends to be decided by the home team. However, Leinster are a finals regular, while Glasgow fumbled to Bulls last year at home, so it’s anyone’s game. With their internationals available, Leinster might just clutch.
FINAL
Stormers vs Leinster: Can the Stormers upset Leinster’s win streak? It may depend on fine margins. With their new signings, Stormers have more than enough quality to challenge Leinster’s gameplan, and someone’s going to make Leinster bottle a final eventually, so I’d bank on the home team.
Champions: Stormers
Miscellaneous Predictions
Player of the Season: Paul de Villiers. He only seems to be getting better, and with Kolisi alongside him as a mentor on both the club and international stages, he’ll be crucial to Stormers’ playoff chances.
Impact Signing: Ciaran Frawley. He brings some real quality at 10 for Connacht, who will need it if they are to compete with the top sides and their world-class 10s. He may not take over kicking duties from Sam Gilbert, but he’s more than capable of scoring clutch drop goals when needed.
Breakthrough Player: Jamie Benson. He could probably also go on impact signings, but with Ulster’s fairly mediocre 10 stocks, he’s primed for a great season. Stuck behind Marcus Smith, but still a great attacking force at Harlequins, he should add a net positive to Ulster’s attack.
Coach of the Season: Stuart Lancaster. Connacht are likely to be even better this season, and with a second year to shape the side, his experience combined with their new signings should give them plenty of ways to win.
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