Glawio Rugby

Autumn Nations Squad Reaction + Analysis

Having announced the full squad on Tuesday, Tandy has largely done what I think most people expected him to do; while several key players and starters have been retained, there are several uncapped and returning players that make up a considerably different squad to what I had initially predicted. From the start, Tandy has made it clear that above all else, the Welsh team has needed a new identity and playstyle which it can hone to perfection, and whether or not some of these players are the best in their position ultimately comes second to how well they can fit into the coaches’ idea for this new structure.

With that said, here is my breakdown of the newly announced Wales squad for the upcoming Autumn International Series.

Front Row:

Hooker is a position where Wales have notable depth, but haven’t fully utilised several players at international level. Fittingly, Tandy has selected, alongside the incumbent Dewi Lake, two relatively inexperienced hookers at this level of the game; Liam Belcher and Brodie Coghlan. Belcher I expected in the absence of the injured Elliot Dee, for his defensive skills and solid fundamentals, but Coghlan is more surprising. Though a player I’ve been interested to see on the international stage for his physical carrying, Evan Lloyd appeared to surpass him after the most recent Six Nations. Still, he can be one of the Dragons’ most valuable players at his best, and a larger body will be needed ahead of Argentina and South Africa. Why Lloyd has been excluded is questionable, but Coghlan being his replacement makes sense.

Tighthead is much less blessed with depth, but it’s at least nice that Tandy has retained Sherratt’s selections. I’m not sure who will start, although Archie Griffin’s work around the field makes him the strongest overall player in my opinion. Similarly to Angus Bell for the Wallabies, however, Tandy might view him as an impact player off the bench, and will favour the more destructive scrummaging of Assiratti and Coleman. Neither have really hit their ceiling, especially with Assiratti’s general inconsistency up front, but this makes two squads where the promoted Hair Bears have favoured selecting them over more consistent starters. Duncan Jones, after all, was the prop who really refined Tomas Francis’ scrummaging work, and if both him and Adam see something in Coleman, it might be worth believing them.

Loosehead is the real story though, because while Smith and Thomas were expected, there’s a much larger, 131 kg elephant in the room. Rhys Carré has been one of the strongest carrying looseheads in the Gallagher Prem in recent years, but being captured by the 25-cap rule has largely eroded hopes in his return to the international fold. However, for largely unclarified reasons (but seemingly the same clause that applied to Jarrod Evans), he’s back, and with how much size this Wales team has missed, his gameplay will be incredibly helpful. I wou;dnt start him over Smith, given that he;s the weaker scrummager, but I think he can really make the 17 jersey his own. Southworth, meanwhile, has also come from left-field, though he’s helped pick up where Carré left off at Cardiff with his carrying game. At the very least, being based in Wales should retain a similar bench quality for the South Africa game, and he’s scrummaged pretty well for Cardiff so far.

Second-Row:

For the most part, I called this right in my blog; but here’s what it means. Dafydd Jenkins, with his physicality and defensive skill, makes for an excellent enforcer who can simultaneously get Wales’ pack moving and take down attackers. Adam Beard, meanwhile, is a brilliant lineout operator, both at taking and stealing, which is especially valuable with the strength of Wales’ driving maul, while his maul defence can help against the Southern Hemisphere’s world-class hookers. These two will likely start as many games as possible; they’re the incumbents for a reason.

Ben Carter’s defensive skill, experience, and versatility make him the likely bench pick, though Rhys Davies’ breakdown work might give him an edge instead. Davies and Fender cover Jenkins and Beard’s skillset respectively, helping for the South Africa test, and having played together frequently, will know what the other is capable of. Our locks, overall, aren’t particularly flashy attackers, but fulfill the core fundamentals of their respective roles well, which can set up the stronger offensive power of other attackers. These skills are needed for any team to succeed, and if Wales’ pack are going to be competitive, these players are our best chance to control the setpiece.

Back Row:

Not having Ross Moriarty or Tommy Reffell is a surprise, but I don’t think it’ll change the general strategy too much. Luckily for Wales, they have plenty of quality options in the back row to cover any strategy a coach may want to employ. Interestingly, there has been a large focus on breakdown threats and jackalers; with the appointment of Dan Lydiate as a defence coach who specialises in chop-tackling, this should be well-leveraged in defensive tactics.

I’m including Freddie Thomas as a blindside because that’s where I expect him to play; I think the larger size and better quality of other locks will keep him out of the second row, but he will be an invaluable player on blindside with his… well, size and physicality. He’s a great carrier and athletic runner who will be invaluable against Argentina’s double-blindsides and will push Plumtree and Mann for that starting 6 jersey. The other two are no joke, however; they’ve proven how high their ceilings can reach after last season, though I think Mann might be stuck with playing against Japan; his defence and lineout work is exceptional, but with our options at 7 being similarly capable, a bigger body might be needed here.

Opernside I’ll keep short; Jac starts. Hopefully, though, there will be much less pressure on him than there was during the Gatland era, where he more or less had to do everything he was physically capable of. During the Lions Tour, we saw his potential with a stronger pack around him, and he was able to simply focus on dominating the breakdown and generating turnovers, and he was excellent. He’s also the captain now, so combine those together and I’m sure his quality will shine through. Morgan Morse, meanwhile, might play here if Jac moves to 6, as his stronger carrying game gives him great bench impact, though he isn’t as much of a lineout jumper as Alex Mann.

At 8, Taulupe Faletau’s untimely injury has caused a bit of a reshuffle; though given he was out for most of 2024, Aaron Wainwright won’t be uncomfortable leading at 8. What is interesting is the call up of Olly Cracknell as his replacement. To me, this suggests that Tandy’s primary wish from this position is significant post-contact meters and defenders beaten. Wainwright leads in both categories usually, so he’ll likely be the starter, while Cracknell’s larger size will be used to batter down tired defenders in search of the try line. Cracknell being based in Leicester, though, means he’ll probably be sidelined in favour of bringing Morgan Morse into his preferred position for the South Africa game.

A wide range of skills across all three positions, but a relative consistency in each implies Tandy wants specific things from each jersey. Should his tactics work, this could be how Wales build their deep backrow for future campaigns. 

Scrum Half:

Of course, all that breakdown work and power won’t mean much if the ball isn’t moving fast enough to capitalise on it. Tomos Williams was always going to be here, though he hasn’t gotten off to the best of starts at Gloucester yet. Still, Tandy has selected a very powerful pack capable of generating significant post-contact meters, so the scrum half position will be incredibly valuable for moving the ball outside. The Lion is a great triple-threat; his kicking has developed greatly throughout the Gatland era, and his distribution skills aren’t matched by anyone in Wales. He might not steal the show as much as last season, but he’s still a huge asset.

Pairing with him off the bench are both Ospreys starters, Hardy and Morgan-Williams. Hardy had a polarising Japan tour, but he still showed his quality at test level with good supporting lines and a healthy collection of assists and tries. Still, his Ospreys partner Morgan-Williams might be preferred as a long-term successor to Williams. RMW kicks a bit more frequently, and has played more games recently given Hardy’s injuries, so it’s more of a 50/50. When both are fit, Hardy tends to start more frequently for the Ospreys, so when Tomos is absent against South Africa, he might take the lead.

Fly Half:

Three names is an interesting call; it seems to me that Tandy is keeping his options open for 5-3 splits, but there is a clear pattern here of fast-moving playmakers who like to play very open games. Dan Edwards is my predicted starter; though maybe not the in-form 10, Wales’ win over Japan in the summer was largely thanks to his game-management and ability to apply consistent offensive pressure. He also has about 8-9 years on the other two, so being the long-term player gives him a solid edge, and his lack of experience hasn’t held him back much so far.

The other two are more experienced, and act as good backups thanks to their similar playstyles, but both do have their weaknesses. Evans is a great playmaker who can comfortably exploit a tired defence off the bench, but I don’t think he’s a starting 10; his game management and defensive work tends to let him down in games where his pack lose control. Callum Sheedy is a bit stronger, and has had a great run of form for Cardiff lately with his great assist skills, but his tee-kicking has been inconsistent for the past two season Similarly, I wouldn’t start him at 10, but both could provide valuable impact off the bench. It’s important to build the team around what players can do rather than focus on what they can’t; both players’ skills are well-suited to the kind of offence their former head-coaches might employ.

Centres:

In a position which has perhaps been most indicative of Wales’ struggles to determine their playstyle, Tandy has once again formed a very clear pattern; two ball-playing 12s, two big carrying 13s, and Nick Tompkins to add defensive security to both. Ben Thomas and Max Llewellyn is a well-utilised combination, and one Sherratt will be familiar with, and adding Joe Hawkins and Louis Hennessey as a younger version of said pairing gives Tandy options, both starting or on the bench. Hawkins and Thomas can cover 10, Llewellyn and Hennessey can cover the wings, and Llewellyn can also move to 12 if need be.

Who starts the tests will be an interesting call. Thomas and Llewellyn as the incumbent combination is certainly the most likely option, while Tompkins could come off the bench in certain matchups to provide solid coverage in the event of injuries. Then again, Hawkins is a larger man than Thomas, who’s come under fire for having the physicality more in line with a fly-half. Hennessey has a much tougher time displacing Llewellyn, who has an extra 6 years of experience and starts far more frequently at club level, international experience aside. Tompkins is arguably in the best form of them all, as he’s been a consistent contributor to the Saracens’ excellent start to the 2025 season.

Also, with Tompkins, Llewellyn, and Hennessey all being based in England, none will be available to cover the 13 position. This could mean that Jacob Beetham, who I’ll cover shortly, could move into this spot, or Tandy will call in additional reinforcements like Joe Roberts or Harri Millard instead.

Outside Backs:

The main question here is Louis Rees-Zammit’s fitness. He seems to be doing well, but having not played since week 2 of the PREM, Tandy might opt to rest him against the consistent aerial pressure of Argentina, especially when there are sufficient options to match the visitors in this area. Josh Adams had a great game against Edinburgh, and his defensive skills and experience will be valuable on whichever wing he’s deployed. To. Rogers might get less gametime if Rees-Zammit is able to play most of the tests (which, if he’s fit to do so, he really should), but his better aerial skill might earn him a spot against Argentina and New Zealand regardless, as Rodrigo Isgro and Will Jordan will likely be included to challenge Wales here.

Rio Dyer’s inclusion makes a lot of sense, as with LRZ’s injury his speed could compensate in games where pace is more valuable than technical skills. Not that Dyer doesn’t have those, but being reintroduced to the Wales fold after he was functionally discarded around this time last year makes one curious to see how he has developed since then, given the Dragons haven’t given him much platform to show this. Still, Keelan Giles’ injury and Tom Bowen’s youth makes him a reasonable shout, and with how dangerous he’s been against elite teams before, there’s no reason he couldn’t do so again.

At fullback, Blair Murray will aim to try and maintain his counterattack pressure and ability to create breaks and scores from very little. Given how much Argentina and New Zealand (as possibly South Africa depending on who is at 12) like to kick the ball, Murray’s presence makes large areas of Wales’ backfield dangerous to kick towards. While not the tallest, he’s no less effective in the air, so it’ll be hard for Jacob Beetham to take that spot. Beatham, however, is a very versatile back who can cover both wings and both centres in addition to fullback. He’s had a solid start to the season, and his skills on defence and in the air should earn him some gametime off the bench.