Wales vs Japan Review – Nations Championship 2026
Wales 28 – 21 Japan
All things considered, a solid win for Wales, though maybe not as well as it could have been and a step behind their wins over Italy and Fiji earlier in the year. Not that it’s any less impressive; Japan have been in great form by their standards, winning the Pacific Nations Cup for the first time in years and looking closer to their peak in 2019. Still, Wales handled their speed and took control over the game, never losing the lead over all 80 minutes.
Still, it was far from the perfect, clinical performance Wales are still chasing. While somewhat excused from having so much time off and still looking for key combinations, Wales’ attack still has yet to click and there were a few times where the more coordinated Japan caught them off guard. A big red flag was their lineout; nearing a 92% accuracy rate so far this year, here it was a dreary 69%. With how crucial the setpiece is to control the tempo of a game, things could’ve gone a lot worse with that number. While their overall discipline (5 penalties) was strong, there were several knock-ons and missed opportunities indicative of a side that was more than a few paces from where they wanted to be.
Overall, Wales will take the win, but the next two weeks could be another reality check like the earlier block of Nations Championship fixtures if they don’t clear up these issues. They won’t fancy their chances against a very in-form All Blacks team that put Scotland to the sword, a team far more cohesive and clinical than Wales, but the Australia test could be a chance to redeem the issues from this game and set the standard for the Six Nations.
Player Ratings:
1: Nicky Smith 6
Smith put in a great shift around the park, but the scrum was a disappointment. Takeuchi is certainly a worthy opponent, but Smith’s niche over Carré is supposed to be his destructive scrummaging, and yet Wales’ only powerful scrum efforts came when the looseheads switched. Probably won’t start against the All Blacks, though his ruck interventions are becoming a real strength.
2: Dewi Lake 7
Dewi gets a free point for a try-saving intervention, but otherwise isn’t winning any more plaudits than his front-five colleagues for what was a poor performance at the setpiece. To be fair, his throws were mostly straight, with a couple of exceptions, and it was more so the tactical setup of the lineout that faltered, but it’s still partly his fault.
3: Archie Griffin 6
Powered over for an impressive early game try similar to his usual showings for Bath. From there, not much went too well; he lost the ball in contact a couple of times and had a tough time at the scrum.
4: Dafydd Jenkins 6
Tackled a lot. Compared to Wales’ more in-form forwards, he’s more generically solid, and he made it tough for Japan to make linebreaks with some good reads.
5: Ben Carter 6
I’m giving Carter more flack for the lineout troubles because he’s the primary caller and has otherwise been exceptional. Warner Dearns is a world-class lock and Harry Hockings towers over most players, but Carter got completely outplayed at lineout time far too often, giving the opposition too many chances; on another day, that could’ve been awful. Holding up some ball carriers and being a powerful defensive force keeps him with a net positive, overall.
6: Alex Mann 7
A more generic showing than usual, though he certainly earns merit for 3 turnovers and a clean sheet of 19 tackles. Made little impact on go-forward but was one of the more solid players at the lineout and made Japan work a lot harder.
7: Jac Morgan 8
Wales needed a strong game from Morgan, and he delivered with a typically stellar defensive workrate. Brought a similar energy on attack too, helping to setup Josh Adams’ first try and generally being an omnipresent force when things went well for Wales.
8: Aaron Wainwright 8
Maybe not as dynamic as Mann or Morgan, but Wainwright’s efforts with the ball-in-hand were no less impressive. Beat 6 defenders and made 37 meters in 7 carries, as Japan didn’t really know how to deal with him. More of a surprise he never scored anything. A count of 20 tackles showed he brought a lot on the other side of the ball, which is where Wales ended up playing a lot.
9: Tomos Williams 5
Yet again bearing responsibility for Wales’ limited attack. They may be a pragmatic team, but you’d expect them to try and be a little more creative with the ball with a world-class scrum-half like Williams. The kicking game wasn’t a highlight this time around, and beyond his solid as usual distribution, that’s all Williams really brought.
10: Sam Costelow 5
Costelow managed Japan’s pressure well, but again, kicking from hand was not giving Wales a lot to work with. Got knocked around by Samisoni Tua a lot, similar to Justo Piccardo against Argentina, which isn’t entirely his fault but with his skillset, a more fluid attack to compensate would be nice.
11: Josh Adams 7
A lot slower than his counterpart, but a pretty strong showing. Adams finished his two tries well, though was mesmerised by Japan’s attacking power a couple times. Didn’t completely quiet the voices calling for him to be benched, but he’s clearly still comfortable at this level.
12: Max Llewellyn 7
Wasn’t his club-level presence on attack, but compared to Wales’ past 12s, was a big improvement on defence. Covered Costelow well with 19 tackles and only 3 misses; it’s not often Wales’ 12s get over 80% success. Distributed and linked well with James, though it’s clearly a raw partnership.
13: Eddie James 8
Is he better utilised at 12? Probably, but he’s just as good at 13, as the centres justified Tandy’s plan overall. Carried well and defended well, making the brilliant Dylan Riley look invisible. Also a solid presence at the breakdown, capping off a well-rounded performance.
14: Louis Rees-Zammit 9
Comfortably Wales’ best player. Gained ground with every carry, beating 10 defenders by half time and finishing with 13 beat, 5 line breaks and 121 meters carried. Unplayable, though some decision making errors hold him back from a perfect showing.
15: Blair Murray 8
Similar ball-carrying performance to Rees-Zammit, punishing over-zealous Japanese kicks with lethal counter-attacks. Linked well with his fellow playmakers, though slipped back into awkward kicking at times.
BENCH
16: Ryan Elias 7
Lost the ball in contact once, but otherwise threw better lineouts than Lake. Big effort around the park too, making good use of his physicality on defence.
17: Rhys Carré 7
Big boost to the scrum, and one carry looked particularly dangerous late-game, though it ended with a Japanese counterattack. The right kind of dynamism at the right time.
18: Tomas Francis 7
Better scrummaging effort when he came on. Not much else from Francis, but it’s why he gets picked.
19: Teddy Williams 6
Won a nice turnover, and brought his typical athleticism on the few occasions he got to. Couldn’t save the lineout, though.
20: James Botham 6
I gave Botham a score because the next 3 guys did a lot less; with only ten minutes, he helped Wales close out the game when Japan threatened a comeback.
21: Reuben Morgan-Williams N/A
Didn’t play. Could’ve brought a bit more energy than Tomos, so it’s a shame.
22: Dan Edwards N/A
Got flattened just like Costelow, but didn’t bring any more on attack, managing 0 carries and 0 kicks.
23: Louie Hennessey N/A
More justified than RMW, given how well Wales’ back 5 played and Hennessey’s less-than-stellar defensive skills for Bath, but still a disappointment.
My Team for New Zealand:
- Rhys Carré
- Dewi Lake
- Tomas Francis
- Dafydd Jenkins
- Ben Carter
- James Botham
- Jac Morgan
- Aaron Wainwright
- Tomos Williams
- Sam Costelow
- Ellis Mee
- Eddie James
- Max Llewellyn
- Louis Rees-Zammit
- Tom Rogers
BENCH
- Ryan Elias
- Nicky Smith
- Archie Griffin
- Teddy Williams
- Taine Basham
- Reuben Morgan-Williams
- Dan Edwards
- Louie Hennessey
Not too many changes; I think the consistency is more important and there aren’t many personnel changes that I think would make a massive impact. I’ve switched props given the difference in the scrummaging, plus Carré’s dominant carrying gives Wales another crucial gainline option. The backrow sees a more significant shift; Basham’s ability to get Wales over the gainline can’t be ignored against New Zealand, who will be far more dominant in that area than Japan were. Alex Mann is unlucky to miss out, and you could swap him and Botham if you were to target New Zealand’s awkward lineout, but Botham isn’t far behind in that area and brings a bit more physicality to the pack.
The backline also retains much of the same structure, though I’ve moved James and Llewellyn back to their more usual positions. You could swap Edwards for Costelow for an even more direct attacking approach, but the difference shouldn’t be too massive; Wales just can’t get into a kicking contest with DMac and Beauden Barrett. Ellis Mee should have an easier time managing Will Jordan than Josh Adams, who had a few defensive issues in this game, and is generally the stronger of the two under the high ball. Finally, while Blair Murray had a great game, Rogers’ solidarity under the high ball should give him a chance at fullback here, limiting New Zealand’s avenues of creating chaos as much as possible.
It’s an uphill battle whoever Wales pick; compared to this time last year, the All Blacks are much closer to their best rugby even with some key injuries. Ironically given the evidence of this game, Wales should be able to target their lineout to regain possession, as they’ve generally been the stronger of the two teams on that front this year. With some more confidence in attack, they should be aiming for a try bonus point to retain the 5th place spot in case Italy pulls off an upset against Argentina.
