Wales Six Nations 2026 – Reaction and Analysis
Having announced his first Six Nations squad, Steve Tandy will aim to end the team’s losing streak from the previous two tournaments, likely with home victories over Scotland and Italy. To do so, he’s played it relatively safe; only two uncapped players, many returners from the previous tour, and likely a similar gameplan as before, hopefully with some of the creases ironed out.
In this blog, I’ll be going through the squad and providing insight into specific selections, predicting how the squad will likely be used, and selecting the team I would use in the first match against England.
Front Row:
Wales have struggled to produce consistent quality from their front-rowers in recent seasons, but the squad actually looks relatively strong here. Nicky Smith and Rhys Carré are two of the PREM’s most consistent looseheads, backed up by the experienced Gareth Thomas. While Kieron Assiratti and Archie Griffin have established themselves as the strongest tightheads available to Wales over their relatively short careers, they’ve frequently struggled against the pressures of international scrums.
Therefore, it’s a huge boost to have Tomas Francis back, who has had no trouble anchoring the Welsh scrum against some of the strongest in the world. Whether he’s too far into his prime is questionable, but he also brings a wealth of experience; 77 caps to Assiratti and Griffin’s combined 30. Despite his absence from the international scene, he makes a good case to start.
Update: Kieron Asiratti has been pulled from the Wales squad following a calf injury and has been replaced by Sam Wainwright. While not as experienced as Henry Thomas, Wainwright has a generally better discipline record and is a capable scrummager, and with most of the other options being injured, this is a good opportunity to show what he can do with the jersey.
At hooker, Ryan Elias makes a welcome return for a Wales side in need of powerful carriers. While not the most reliable at the lineout, he possesses multiple helpful skills as an enforcer similarly to Dewi Lake. As captain, Lake tends to play as deep into games as possible, but Elias’ presence enables the front row to maintain its abrasive edge once the captain leaves. Liam Belcher, meanwhile, is a more technical player in place of the experienced Elliot Dee, though while smaller in size, he’s no less capable of dynamic carries and breakdown work.
An improved performance from this front-row can help bring Wales’ stronger players into the game, though they’ll have an almighty challenge against England and France right out the gate.
Second Row:
Less to talk about here; individually, Dafydd Jenkins and Adam Beard are two of the most effective players Wales can deploy in the second row, and while they may have looked too similar in their strengths to make the most effective combination in the Autumn, Tandy’s other two selections makes this unlikely to change. At the very least, Freddie Thomas’ early injury means he may miss the starting fixture, so if Tandy wants to change things up, he may have to wait.
Still, Ben Carter and Freddie Thomas are very effective players in the loose, so Wales could’ve done a lot worse here. The Dragons are on a rare surge of form at the moment, and Carter is helping to marshal that with his uncompromising defensive consistency with dominant tackles and turnovers. While Gloucester may be struggling, Freddie Thomas remains an aggressive carrier who is gradually improving his contributions at the setpiece, though whether he retains this role with Wales may change once Teddy Williams returns from injury.
Beard has come under fire for his lack of attacking contributions (which is fair, though he produced solid work on defence), but his enormous size, lineout skills, and international experience make up for this as a whole. Still, Jenkins looks far above him in terms of form; he’s playing some of his best rugby for Exeter and seems to be getting larger as he matures into a stronger and more composed leader. Provided Beard carries his weight more in the lineout and Jenkins can physically hold off opponents, this area shouldn’t be an issue.
Back Row:
A lot more surprising here; though not a poor selection by any means, Tandy has very much avoided selecting on form. The main headline is the lack of Tommy Reffell, though in context I think it makes sense; with Jac Morgan and Aaron Wainwright, two nailed-on squad members, moving outside of Wales next season, it makes more sense to prioritise talents based in Wales and limit the number of players who may not make certain training camps. At the very least, Tandy seems to prefer Olly Cracknell’s powerful ball carrying synergy-wise.
I left Josh Macleod out of my initial squad on form but I won’t deny he is a capable openside for international duty. His leadership and breakdown work should give him the ability to organise the backrow around him in the place of Jac Morgan. Harri Deaves isn’t really at the same level as a jackaler, but he can more than hold his own as a carrier, plus his workrate can help him out-effort the opposition when his smaller size holds him back.
Alex Mann can continue to build on his strong showings in the Autumn, though he may not synergise as well with Macleod as Plumtree or Botham, who pack a little more power in contact. Plumtree’s discipline remains a consistent problem, but his athleticism and versatility make him valuable off the bench if needed. Meanwhile, Botham can more than push his way in with his combination of breakdown work and post-contact power. Mann may end up being pushed to cover openside by those two, though which skillset Tandy decides is more important remains to be seen.
Halfback:
Tomos Williams and Kieran Hardy keep their expected positions, though the lack of Che Hope is disappointing. Perhaps Tandy wanted the more consistently proven Reuben Morgan-Williams as a backup to the other two, though at 22 years old, one would expect Hope to work his way in as his game management matures.
As one of Wales’ most talismanic players, Tomos will start every game he’s available for, though he struggled to keep up for the 70+ minute duration Tandy was having him play in the Autumn. As a result, Hardy may get a little more gametime if he’s able to replace Tomos sooner; he may not have the versatility and X-factor, but his fundamentals are more than strong enough to close out the game once the field has been broken up.
Edwards and Evans will aim to maintain the same attacking system that worked well in the Autumn, but I’m happier than I expected to be to see the trust placed in Sam Costelow. Without him, the Scarlets’ midfield has look slower and less threatening than it can be under his guidance, and with players like Ellis Mee and Eddie James in good form, he adds a level of synergy not possessed by Edwards or Evans. He’s probably still the third choice by system, but if he can keep his confidence he could be a valuable backup.
A shame not to see Angus O’Brien, though he may be better served as a fullback since he doesn’t fit the skillset needed for 10 as easily for Wales.
Centres:
Less to talk about here as it’s a lot of what I expected. Sheratt’s system of a playmaking 12 and a hard-carrying 13 persists with Hawkins and Thomas in the former jersey and likely Eddie James and Owen Watkin in the latter, with Louie Hennessey as a backup. Still, with Watkin and James having significant experience at 12, they could both pair up for a more powerful centre-field combo, though it’s unlikely we’ll see it.
Thomas had a poor Autumn overall, but he’s been in some of his best form for Cardiff since then, winning two MotM awards and more than proving he can outplay dangerous backlines, which will be needed here. Hawkins still looks a little green, but his extra physical presence and generally stronger Autumn form might give him the edge to start.
Who starts between Watkin and James is more interesting; Watkin has been a staple player for Wales given his valuable defensive skills and ability to safely link attacking plays, though he lacks the pace to develop them on his own. Eddie James, meanwhile, brings physical traits that Wales are lacking for the most part; you can’t coach more technical centres to be 6’4’’ and 110 kgs, and he’s been in solid form in both centre positions since returning from injury. He isn’t really a jackaler, so the question will ultimately come down to what Tandy needs more of outside the 12; James is more likely to inject some go-forward to the attack, but Watkin is less likely to miss over 3 tackles and lose the game by 40 points.
Wings:
If Tommy Reffell missing out was a surprise, Rio Dyer’s absence is a complete curveball; back to some of his best form and being one of the few bright sparks in the South Africa game, Dyer finds himself overlooked in favour of similar, less experienced and less in-form options who bring similar skills. Tandy may be playing it conservatively as he clearly favoured Josh Adams and Tom Rogers in the Autumn, but it’s a real shame as he would’ve been one of my starters against England.
On the other side of the coin, Gabriel Hamer-Webb finds himself brought in almost a year later than when he left Wales to try his hand with Leicester. While the move hasn’t quite gone as planned (though competing with Adam Radwan and Ollie Hassell-Collins was always going to be an uphill battle if they missed England duty), his past form for Cardiff shows he can be a physical, capable finisher with a solid aerial game, like the other players selected here. If Tandy can create a kick-chase gameplan to exploit other teams in the air, these guys could do a lot of damage.
Fullbacks:
Is Blair Murray supposed to be a fullback? It may be optimistic to expect Tandy to just outright drop him from the position he typically plays for the Scarlets, even with Nigel Davies moving Joe Hawkins back to centre. Still, at international level, his height is a fundamental flaw that Tandy’s attempts to cover for can’t hide. With Louis Rees-Zammit consistently performing in this position for Bristol Bears and both Tom Rogers and Ellis Mee being in equally solid form, you’d be hard-pressed to justify him starting in the XV. Still, his playmaking and footwork are more than good enough for this level of rugby, so if Tandy decides that’s the route he wants to go down, he’ll need to step up in the aerial contest.
My 23 for England:
With all said and done, Wales are not in for an easy first tow fixtures. England are on fire right now, having won every game since the first match of last year’s Six Nations, and their depth in key areas completely outclasses Wales. While I’m building this XV with their existing structure in mind, Borthwick has shown no trouble in mixing things up between campaigns, and if he picks the right matchup this could get tricky.
My Team:
1: Nicky Smith
2: Dewi Lake
3: Tomas Francis
4: Dafydd Jenkins
5: Adam Beard
6: Olly Cracknell
7: Josh Macleod
8: Aaron Wainwright
9: Tomos Williams
10: Dan Edwards
11: Mason Grady
12: Joe Hawkins
13: Owen Watkin
14: Tom Rogers
15: Louis Rees-Zammit
BENCH
16: Ryan Elias
17: Rhys Carré
18: Archie Griffin
19: Ben Carter
20: Alex Mann
21: Kieran Hardy
22: Jarrod Evans
23: Ellis Mee
I think this team has the best balance to take on England, though I’ll run through specific selections in more detail. The front row is, generally, built around the largest and strongest scrummagers available. Without Fin Baxter, the tighthead will likely be facing the elite Ellis Genge, so Francis’ experience easily gives him the edge, although Archie Griffin had a decent showing against him last year. Elias also gets the nod over Liam Belcher, though either could fit there; with either likely to only play around 15 minutes, Elias’ weaker lineout throwing is less of a weakness, while his power is more important in late-game collisions.
Beard and Jenkins isn’t the most balanced second row, but with Freddie Thomas missing the first game, this is the best way to make use of the available 3 locks; if Beard is playing, his set-piece skills only really matter if he starts. Olly Cracknell fits into 6 to try and provide a ball-carrying option outside of the lineout, as Wainwright is the only backrower in the selection who regularly takes them. With two powerful carriers around Josh Macloed, they should be able to slow down England’s ball and get over the gainline. Alex Mann, meanwhile, can cover 6 and 8 while exploiting tired defenders with his athleticism, and adds an additional jackal option late game.
Tomos Williams and Dan Edwards start as the best players in their positions, and while Sam Costelow could fit in at 22, Jarrod Evans offers more versatility. Mason Grady brings a more powerful carrier at 11, and both he and Tom Rogers can chase down high balls and pressure out wide. Louis Rees-Zammit can take over from Murray at 15 as he possesses similar strengths, but fewer weaknesses as a fullback, though he may end up kicking more than he’s used to.
The centre partnership was tricky, but I’ve opted for Joe Hawkins and Owen Watkin; while not the fastest or flashiest combo on attack, Watkin shores up Hawkins’ defensive difficulties and allows him to focus on playmaking, while offering an extra jackal threat as neither Cracknell or Wainwright are excellent over the ball. Eddie Jame may come into the fold later, but against England’s likely combo of Fraser Dingwall and Tommy Freeman, experienced defenders are just more important to not leak points.
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