My Six Nations 2026 Predictions
The Six Nations timeline is a weird one. After the Autumn tests, it feels a long distance away, but over the Christmas period that time dissolves so quickly, and then squad announcements are on the horizon. I can still remember headlines and stats from the previous year’s tournament, and now I’m looking forward to see how those change on 2026. So for some fun, I wanted to run through some pre-week 1 predictions for the upcoming Six Nations.
End of Season Standings:
6: Wales
On the plus side, Wales don’t really have much to lose here. On the field, at least; off the field, Wales are losing even harder, but they’ll still be nowhere near Italy’s “achievements” in the late 2010s even with a 3rd successive winless season. Tandy is still trying to rebuild Wales to a team that can compete with the Top 10 of World Rugby, and while the Autumn had some clear positives, these clearly aren’t issues that can be fixed within the first 3 or so campaigns.
Wins over Scotland and Italy, which certainly aren’t achievable given their own problems, would do a lot to alleviate the pressure surrounding the squad, but with limited depth and experience Wales are likely to be working from a disadvantage from minute one. Tomos Williams and Louis Rees-Zammit are world-class, but the entire squad needs to buy in if they are to avoid the Wooden Spoon; they’ll need to own contestable high balls and front up physically to do so.
5: Italy
Italian rugby is on the rise again, but for what it’s worth this tends to happen a lot only for the Six Nations to give them some form of reality check. Quesada’s men need to aim for 4th as a benchline; anything less is a mark of little progress, and with Ange Capuozzo and Edoardo Todaro injured, their backline generally looks weaker than other sides. Still, Italy can leverage the advantage when opposing teams underestimate them, as Scotland can attest to.
Much like the next team, that opening game will define their season. They lack the depth to handle the top sides, so their gameplan will likely boil down to breakdown control and territorial kicking thanks to Paolo Garbisi, while Brexoncello provides attacking threat in the midfield. It’s weird having their most important fixtures on both sides of the tournament, and we could see a completely different Italy by the end.
4: Scotland
Where are Scotland right now? Probably not in a good spot; after falling off against Argentina, they got booed out of the stadium by their own fans, and if they drop the ball again against Italy in Rome, their season is likely already over. That being said, they have a lot more going for than the previous two sides; Glasgow are arguably the form club in Europe, and they can certainly give England a scare. But Townsend seems to have taken the team to its limits, and it’s hard to bank on them scoring higher.
We could see a reshuffle of the established guard with some newer players coming in. While the squad is relatively old, players like Kyle Steyn and Jamie Dobie have been in excellent form, and could come in on the bench or the XV should their skills be considered too valuable. Gregor Brown is also likely to be invaluable as a bench player, as Scotland’s 6-2 split could be incredibly dangerous.
3: Ireland
Where are Ireland right now? Probably fine. Still, Andy Farrell’s team need to show signs of transition with both their aging player pool and less-unanswerable strategies slowly fading out of the top spaces. They certainly have the talent to do so, and the selections of Edwin Edogbo and Nathan Doak show that Farrell has this partially figured out, but how he plans to use these players will define Ireland’s future style.
With so many prop injuries as well, we probably won’t see the same level of scrum dominance, not helped by two of the stronger teams this time being great scrummaging sides. For Week 1, they’ve made some big decisions, like dropping James Lowe and putting Prendergast in charge at 10. But ultimately, it;s hard to gauge Ireland’s strength with how little is known about their current form; they should at least be stronger than they were in the Autumn, but challenging the top two seems to far out of reach.
2: France
Between the two strongest sides, it was very close. But after a relatively disappointing Autumn, the way France have approached this tournament feels like a big gamble; either they shape the future of their team in time to be World Cup contenders, or they fumble to England and go back to the drawing board. By trying to adapt to international trends, opportunities have opened up for different players like Theo Attisogbe and Anthony Jelonch, but how well they replace established stars is as of yet unclear.
Galthie has confirmed that this is only the team for the first week and not the full tournament, implying players like Romain Ntamack could be called upon later. Plus, Bordeaux and Toulouse are producing players as strong as ever. If Jalibert and Dupont can link up well, they could be near-unplayable. If Mickaël Guillard can nail down a starting position that allows France to balance physicality with breakdown success, they could dominate collisions easily. But right now, these are unanswered questions, and it’s hard for a team with lots of unknowns to challenge for titles.
1: England
England are really scary. At the end of 2024, they were generally disappointing, losing to Australia and New Zealand by close margins and entering the 2025 Six Nations expected to finish 4th. And after that first game dropped to Ireland, they’ve bounced back to be one of the strongest sides in the world. With a consistent gameplan in mind, they can push just about anyone aside, and no one has really found a consistent answer to their depth and quality.
France would be the ones to do it, with elite internationals like Antoine Dupont and Louie Bielle-Biarrey who can potentially break their gameplan apart. England don’t really reach the same highs, but trade that for versatility; they can mix up their backrow for any opponent, they have 3 elite international fly-halves, they have two different backlines with different skillsets to exploit defensive faults (Steward-Arundell-Roebuck for aerial control, Furbank-Feyi-Waboso-Murley for raw pace and playmaking etc.). It won’t be as flashy as France’s attack, but they should have everything they need to close out games. At least, provided Duhan doesn’t immediately destroy them again somehow.
XV of the Tournament:
1: Ellis Genge – will only further his claim of being the best prop in the Northern Hemisphere, especially if England win the Grand Slam. His carrying game will be difficult to stop and give England consistent advantages.
2: Dan Sheehan – feels a comfortable distance above the other hookers, but hasn’t necessarily been in the best form. Marchand will put pressure on him, but Sheehan is just too instrumental to Ireland for him to not have good ball.
3: Zander Fagerson – France and England will be busy testing each other’s scrum while Fagerson provides Scotland with a platform to thrive. Has well and truly recovered from injury, and will get valuable unseen work done.
4: Thibaud Flament – is generally in better form than similar players, though up-and-coming teammate Mickaël Guillard will undoubtedly be an important part of France’s campaign like last year. Brings a more athletic edge to France’s forwards that few can replicate.
5: Dafydd Jenkins – a bold prediction, with Wales being far from favourites and the other teams having locks with similar abilities, but Jenkins could really come into his own with the right support. Will be near the top of the tackle charts regardless.
6: Cian Prendergast – with Peter O’Mahoney retired and Ryan Baird injured, it’ll be between Prendergast and Conan to claim this jersey for the tournament. And with the former’s youth and consistent regional form, he has plenty of room to cement his place in time for the World Cup.
7: Sam Underhill – Earl may outperform him, but Underhill currently holds the England 7 jersey and his work at the breakdown will be valuable to regain possession and slow down France and Ireland’s ball. Carries harder than most 7s.
8: Jack Dempsey – in excellent form for Glasgow, and should help carry Scotland through the more physically demanding contests. Has a strong all-around game, and while the shape of Scotland’s backrow may change, he will certainly be a part of it.
9: Antoine Dupont – self-explanatory, but deserves a campaign where he starts all 5 games uninjured. France’s best weapon, so if they win, his inclusion will speak for itself. Jamie Dobie might be one to watch, though.
10: George Ford – between him and Finn Russell, as unlike Ireland and France, they’ll nail down the starting jerseys more consistently. Finn hasn’t really peaked this season, and while he may be conserving his energy for the Calcutta Cup, Ford has been competing with the best for almost a year now. Could actually claim to be the North’s best 10 by the end.
11: Louie Bielle-Biarrey – the obvious and boring pick, but he just keeps scoring tries. Will enter the top 10 of France’s all-time try scorers at 22 years old if he scores 3 more, and he has 5 games to do it. Seems a safe bet he will.
12: Tommasso Menoncello – the clutch factor in Italy’s wins, and there shouldn’t be much competition besides Sione Tuipulotu. That first game may be an important decider, but Menoncello is never invisible, so expect him to continue in this spot.
13: Tommy Freeman – what better way to own the transition to 13 than to beat out players like Huw Jones and Ignacio Brex to this spot? It’s a big ask, but with what he’s done already for Northampton, it’ll at least make for an interesting story.
14: Immanuel Feyi-Waboso – arguably England’s best winger, and would have staked his claim easier if not for injuries. Needs a big statement to own the 11 jersey.
15: Thomas Ramos – may end up as the top scorer, with his attacking prowess taking on a new role in an evolved French kicking game. As last year showed, France can put teams down in violent fashion, and Ramos will capitalise on every second of it.
Try of the Championship:
A weird one to “predict”, but if there’s been a trend in try highlights lately, it’s been props scoring from outside the 22, and no one is better equipped for this than Ellis Genge. Against who is a tough call, but if his repeated Player of the Match awards in the PREM and his form on the Lions tour proved, he could score some exceptional tries, and it would be interesting to see a prop beat out the wingers for this award.
Player of the Championship:
Nominees:
Ellis Genge: England
Antoine Dupont: France
Jack Dempsey: Scotland
Tommasso Menoncello: Italy
Winner: Antoine Dupont
If France win, it will inevitably come down to something Dupont has done or assisted with. While Jalibert may take some playmaking duties away from him, he remains one of the best players in World Rugby, and has had no problems winning this accolade in the past.
Top Try Scorer: Immanuel Feyi Waboso
Freeman was the headline among England’s backs last season, but with his move to centre, Feyi-Waboso will likely aim to be their top finisher. While he faces stiff competition from previous record holders Louie Bielle-Biarrey and Jacob Stockdale, as well as in-form Kyle Steyn, his aerial work and sheer pace should see him high up the charts.
BKT Rising Player Award: Kalvin Gourgues
While Depootère will likely start ahead of him this season, Gourgues may be equally equipped as a bench substitute who can turn the pace of the game near its end with his pace. He’s already had a trailblazing start to his career with Toulouse, who have more than enough high-quality centres to drown him out, and he could easily push his way into the 23 with some consistent performances.
Miscellaneous Wales Predictions:
1: Louie Hennessey will earn his first cap, albeit from the bench
2: Louis Rees-Zammit will start at least one game at fullback
3: The Scotland game is won (by either side) by less than one score
4: Sam Costelow will come off the bench instead of Jarrod Evans for at least one game
5: Jac Morgan will be called into the camp for rehab, possibly appearing against Italy
6: Tom Rogers will be Wales’ top try scorer
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