Glawio Rugby

Wales vs Japan Review – Autumn Nations 2025

Wales 24- 23 Japan

After the Argentina game pressure was on Tandy to rally the squad after that performance and improve key areas of the game.There, Wales had a very solid attacking structure undermined by poor aerial control and inconsistent defence, which the more experienced Argentina side were able to adapt to and capitalise on. While few adjustments were made, Wales’ signs of promise suggested we may see a more dominant performance against a side of similar standing like Japan.

We didn’t.

By all accounts, Wales probably shouldn’t have won this; Japan had 6% more possession and two-thirds of the territory. Only poor discipline and inexperience gave Wales the opportunities to win this game; to their credit, almost every entry to Japan’s 22 gave Wales a try, but getting there seemed nigh-impossible at times. Almost no energy, dynamism, or coordination in attack left the hosts forced to rely on individual success just to get across the field, as they couldn’t win the aerial battles to kick for territory or outpace Japan’s defenders reliably enough. The squad looked even lower on confidence and determination than against Argentina, against a team that’s only beaten the latter once in their entire history.

But still, in the last 10 minutes, Tandy’s bench pulled through; Japan’s final entries to Wales’ 22 were turned around into a brilliant across-the-field play from Wales, and a final maul gave them the penalty needed for Jarrod Evans to take it back. But still, Wales shouldn’t need to be in these situations; these players have played better games against far more experienced, clinical, and well-rounded teams than Japan, but the adjustments made were insufficient to match-up against Jones’ men. Japan lost the game by their lack of experience finishing their work; Wales won it because they knew they needed to in order to avoid an even lower low than has been playing them all-year. They’ve edged into the top 12 for the Rugby World Cup seedings, but against New Zealand and South Africa, serious improvements will need to be made if Tandy is to reinstill hope in this team.

Player Ratings:

1: Nicky Smith 6

Good scrummaging, though he couldn’t force many errors from Japan. One big dominant tackle stood out next to his otherwise underwhelming effort without the ball, though he’s becoming a better carrier.

2: Dewi Lake 5

Wales’ lineout comfortably came out second best, and while his defensive work was very reliable, the blame has to fall to Lake for Wales’ errors here. The team didn’t really look as though they had the drive to win, which doesn’t paint a particularly good picture of his captaincy either, though his past record means he’ll likely retain it going forward.

3: Archie Griffin 6

The scrum was generically good for Wales, and Griffin made a more considerable account of himself on defence than Smith. As one of the less experienced players in the squad, he more than keeps up with what has been a surprisingly consistent pack.

4: Dafydd Jenkins 6

Brought a bit more of his usual workhorse nature to this game than the last; made the second most amount of tackles than anyone else on the pitch, and got a lot out of his limited carries, though his penalty following Nick Tompkins’ try took the wind out of Wales’ sails for a while.

5: Adam Beard 5

Helped out a lot with the defence, making 14 tackles, but given that he played 80 minutes you’d expect more work from an international lock; that’s the same tackle-per-minute score as Tomos. The lineout was messy, and given his skillset you’d have expected to see more from him in this area.

6: Aaron Wainwright 5

I don’t really know what to do with Wainwright; he made more tackles per minute than everyone besides Cracknell and when he got the ball in hand, he made good progress. But in both areas, he also made a few big errors, which stood out with how few errors Mann and Cracknell made. 5 might be a bit harsh, but the competition for backrow spots is tight and he needs to tidy up if he is to be retained.

7: Alex Mann 8

The poor guy kept getting battered by all of Japan’s illegal tackles, but he knew what Tandy needed from him and he delivered. The most consistent lineout operator and made some notable tackles, he more than kept up with Cracknell on both sides of the ball.

8: Olly Cracknell 9

The official man-of-the-match, Cracknell epitomised what Wales actually did quite well; he made 27 tackles and while he may have missed a few, he was one of the only players offering themselves as a powerful carrying option. Never timid on either side of the ball, he’s made a solid case for this jersey going into the Six Nations.

9: Tomos Williams 7

One very dumb penalty hindered what was otherwise a solid performance. Tomos assisted all 3 of Wales’ tries and maintained a notable kicking presence which kept Japan on the backfoot out of Wales’ rucks. Led quite well during his brief stint as captain too, which may need to be a part of his game for Wales going forward.

10: Dan Edwards 7

Better kicking game, especially next to Seungsin Lee’s mixed performances. His opening try could’ve been a great momentum-starter had the rest of the team pulled their weight to a similar extent. Not the next for controlling the game yet, but he’s steadily growing at this level, and it’s great to see.

11: Josh Adams 2

The best aerial operator of the outside backs, not that it’s a particularly high bar. A few decent attempts at carrying doesn’t overshadow his weak defensive performance and a completely idiotic error that led to a red card. Adams has been making too many mistakes at this level, and it’s questionable if he should start as often as he does.

12: Ben Thomas 3

Did little else beyond shuffle the ball to other players, and was under considerable pressure in his own channel. Looked as though he didn’t know how to go forward, and after his weak performance last week, will be lucky to be retained next week.

13: Max Llewellyn 5

A better showing than Thomas, with some reasonable carries and game-reading, but never really made a significant impact. Compared to his more well-rounded showing last week, he hasn’t really done much to show his potential at this level

14: Louis Rees-Zammit 6

A mixed bag; I can’t rate Zammit too lowly when he’s beating 8 defenders in a single game, and his one break down the field gave Wales significant progress on defence. Still, his defence and aerial game looked very rusty, and he needs to add some more “us” to his “me” game to re-attain his past form. Not reading plays particularly well.

15: Blair Murray 3

Yet again, a poor aerial performance which didn’t enable him enough carrying to show his good qualities. It’s hard to justify persisting with him as a fullback at this stage; Japan’s backs comfortably had his number in the air and he got turned over way too often for any of his plays to mean much.

BENCH

16: Liam Belcher 6

That driving maul was incredible, and Belcher certainly made an impact in his strangely limited time on the field.

17: Rhys Carré 6

He’s always been second-best to Smith at the scrum, but more than kept up after he took over the loosehead role. Made a lot more considerable carries, so the bench spot looks like the role for him going forward.

18: Kieron Assiratti 6

Didn’t outshine Griffin, but played like a man hungry for revenge after his poor performance in the summer, making the most of his limited time on the field. Decent tackle rate against an elusive Japanese side.

19: Freddie Thomas 5

Once again, barely got to play, and you question what Tandy expects him to bring off of the bench. His limited work looked solid, however.

20: Taine Plumtree 5

Made a turnover, which is nice. Didn’t really outshine the otherwise underwhelming Wainwright, as his own errors held him back.

21: Kieran Hardy N/A

I think Tandy was nervous about making him play against Japan again.

22: Jarrod Evans 8

Won the game with a very confident penalty kick. We may have seen some more flourishes had he been brought on earlier, but did everything he needed to do, so he earns a high score for such little time.

23: Nick Tompkins 7

Brought immediate impact as he scored a try shortly after replacing Adams. Quietened down a bit after that, but like Jarrod, did exactly what was asked of him.

My Team for New Zealand

1. Nicky Smith
2. Dewi Lake
3. Archie Griffin
4. Rhys Davies
5. Dafydd Jenkins
6. Alex Mann
7. Morgan Morse
8. Olly Cracknell
9. Tomos Williams
10. Dan Edwards
11. Rio Dyer
12. Joe Hawkins
13. Louie Hennessey
14. Louis Rees-Zammit
15. Jacob Beetham

BENCH

16. Liam Belcher
17. Rhys Carré
18. Kieron Assiratti
19. Freddie Thomas
20. Aaron Wainwright
21. Kieran Hardy
22. Jarrod Evans
23. Nick Tompkins

I’ve wielded the axe quite a bit, as I hope and somewhat expect Tandy to do the same. While cohesion was valuable for a must-win game like Japan, we need players who perform even more, and the current setup just isn’t working right now. Notably, the midfield is completely swapped for Hawkins and Hennessey, who are younger players but have high ceilings than Thomas and Llewellyn in the long run – they’ll need gametime at some point. Dyer and Beetham complete the backline to replace underperforming players, as they possess the necessary qualities to perform their role at test level, though they’ll need to step up to perform against New Zealand.

I’ve added Rhys Davies to the XV in place of Adam Beard, with Jenkins moving to fulfill the latter’s role in the set piece as he did during the Six Nations. Davies isn’t really a “stronger” carrier than Jenkins, but his more abrasive contact style can be valuable in the breakdown, with our limited options at 7. He’s more of a conventional enforcer than Jenkins. I’ve also reshuffled the backrow to try and give Morgan Morse an opportunity at 7, as his athletic carrying gives us more options to earn ground. His ruck work also takes pressure off Mann, as Wainwright and Cracknell don’t really pull their weight as much here. Wainwright’s strong carrying gives him a bench spot, though Plumtree might challenge him.