Wales vs Argentina Preview – Autumn Nations
The first game under what is hopefully a more optimistic era for Welsh rugby, yet it still seems as though there’s a looming sense of dread going into what is ultimately a very difficult run of fixtures. Argentina are fresh off of the Rugby Championship, where they scored wins against similarly hardened New Zealand and Australia sides, and their playstyle of wearing teams down with physical aggression and consistent aerial bombardment could be a serious challenge to a team still finding their feet under a new system.
Then again, with pundits already writing Wales off, there isn’t really much for the hosts to lose here. They have just emerged from an 18 game losing streak against Tier 1 opposition, and apart from their second fixture against Japan, it’s difficult for anyone to objectively bet on a Welsh victory until next summer, with their Six Nations rivals all boasting more complete and established squads. With a new coaching setup and a new team, this is the perfect opportunity for Wales to show what’s changed since last year, where they can go from here, and how high their ceiling could reach.
Argentina are one of the best teams to prove this; they aren’t as consistently dominant as South Africa and New Zealand, they aren’t an underwhelming milestone like Samoa or the USA, and they are a team we haven’t played since the World Cup, where there isn’t an expected “standard” of how Wales in their current state compare (like Australia or the Six Nations teams). With Tandy’s squad having a visible shape and a fairly clear gameplan, it will be interesting to see how much the squad has learned from this new coaching team.
Last Time
I won’t spend much time on this section given how much as changed since the last World Cup, but Wales did measure up fairly well to Argentina the last time they played. They still lost 17-29, but scored the same number of tries and remained in the game until the last 10 minutes. The area that really cost them was discipline; Argentina won off the back of 3 kicked penalties, and Wales were the less clinical in their execution overall.
Luckily, discipline is not one of Argentina’s biggest strengths. Arguably, it’s their kryptonite; with such a passionate, physically oriented team, overextending is more or less expected. Wales don’t have the physicality to pressure Argentina, but if they maintain their breakdown control through Alex Mann and Jac Morgan, they could turn this loss on its head.
Where the game will be won
The aerial game and breakdown control. It’s a boring and simple point, but whoever controls these areas controls the attack, and when unleashed, both of these teams have very intimidating attacks. Argentina have kept Rodrigo Isgro – their best aerial operator – on the bench, so he’ll avoid Tom Rogers who will try to have a similar influence under the high ball. Both teams also have a similar number of kicking options, with Geronimo Prisciantelli and Santiago Carreras being as comfortable aiming for touch as Dan Edwards and Ben Thomas. But where Argentina may edge out is in the first phase; they have the larger forwards, and everyone from 4-8 is comfortable aggressively pursuing rucks
If Wales are to win, however, they will most certainly target the lineout. With Adam Beard’s aerial skills, even Montoya’s consistent throwing could lead to turnover ball for Wales, and Dafydd Jenkins and Alex Mann are also dangerous jumpers. Kremer, meanwhile, is not a lineout jumper, so they’ll be relying on Pablo Matera and Juan Martin Gonzalez as jumpers alongside Guido Petti. Controlling the lineout could save or set up some crucial tries for Wales, especially with the danger of their rolling mauls and post-lineout carriers like Rhys Carré and Aaron Wainwright.
Key Matchups
- Both teams like their mauls, but Julian Montoya and Dewi Lake are much more than ball carriers for their teams. Both are dominant around the park with their sheer passion and physicality, and in a game where Wales will want to target the lineout, every throw will need to be spot-on for both sides.
- Under the high ball, Santiago Carreras and Blair Murray are brilliant triple-threat counter-attackers who can seriously dent their opposition if left unchecked. Carreras has played most of the Championship as a fly-half, so his distribution will be on point, while Murray is infamously hard to stop in the narrow channels and will chase every opportunity he’s given.
- In the centres, Santiago Chocobares and Ben Thomas are both very intelligent players who are crucial to their team’s gameplans, but in terms of style, they couldn’t be more different. Chocobares is a post-contact demon who will want to carry into narrow channels and draw in defenders, choosing great lines where he can gain ground for the visitors. Thomas, meanwhile, is a master distributor and attack-controller, more than capable of leveraging opportunities himself, but is most comfortable manipulating defences to give outside threats space to wreak havoc.
Other Players to Watch
- Rhys Carré makes his return to Welsh rugby in place of Nicky Smith at 1. With Wales relatively limited carrying options, Tandy has selected him to carry hard from the front row. He’s in excellent form for Saracens right now, so his impact will be felt.
- Olly Cracknell also debuts from the bench. Tandy is a big fan of his, with the two of them having worked together in the former’s Ospreys days, and if he replaces Wainwright, he’ll need to bring his trademark physicality and large size to dominate collisions.
Prediction: Wales 20 – 29 Argentina
The goal for Wales here is ultimately to instill hope for the future and find their identity on the world stage. A win is certainly possible, and would send tremors throughout World Rugby that they have returned as a force to be reckoned with, but Argentina’s physicality, form, and experience should be enough to wear them out by the 80-minute mark.
Glawio Rugby 