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URC Week 2 Preview

Stormers vs Ospreys

Yet another South African matchup for the Ospreys, and this one goes up against a side that they’ve actually done quite well against in recent fixtures, winning both previous against the Stormers including away at the DHL. On the other hand, the Stormers have only lost one game at home since then, even against teams much more dangerous than the Opreys, so I’m not too keen on the latter’s chances in spite of their record.

Against the Bulls, the Ospreys threw caution to the wind and played fast and aggressive, but unlike their Pretoria rivals, the Stormers can do that too with the likes of Leolin Zas and Seabelo Senatla. Like the Bulls, however, the Stormers love a good scrum, and new Springbok Neethling Fouche is more than a match for the returning Gareth Thomas. This will probably come down to who gets to control tempo, and Jurie Matthee will be riding the form of his previous game against Leinster.

It’s not as though the Ospreys are outclassed; the Stormers are simply very strong even without their current internationals and have more cards in their favour. A game in Cape Town makes them the favourites to take it, but if the Ospreys backline can get firing as well as last week, a different story could emerge. It’s possible we’ll have a high-scoring game on our hands either way, if last week was anything to go by.

Key Matchup: Emerging Springbok Evan Roos, one of the Stormers’ most consistent players, against experienced Welshman Ross Moriarty, who will look to dominate collisions after a relatively quiet match last week.

Players to Watch: Harri Deaves was everywhere last week, making 18 tackles and 2 try assists, and should continue to be a thorn in the hosts’ side. Similarly, Jurie Matthee is currently the league’s top points scorer and will try to control his team’s momentum to overwhelm the Ospreys.

Predicted Score: Stormers 40 – 28 Ospreys. The Stormers are a much faster and more aggressive attacking side than the physically-oriented Bulls, and should be able to match the Ospreys’ tempo better for a similar scoreline to last week. But it could be a lot closer, and may come down to who gets the last try; I think the Stormers just have stronger and more varied options and better consistency.

Dragons vs Sharks

A very important game for the Men from Gwent; though improved last week, they still don’t quite have the edge to close out games, and Ulster were an incredibly dangerous side. The Sharks may be popular with pundits, but minus their Springboks, they’re not the same team that’s matched the top sides blow-for-blow and haven’t won away since edging out Ulster in Ravenhill last year. If there was a game to make a statement victory, it’s this one.

While they may not have won last time, a score of 30-33  won by an 84th minute try certainly makes the hosts look capable. A lot of returning players have returned from that fixture, but the Dragons’ improved scrum under Wyn Jones and Robert Hunt will look to be more competitive. That could be a difference maker, but I don’t want to be harsh on the B-team Sharks; they were solid against Glasgow in Scotstoun off the back of Springboks Edwill van der Merwe and Vincent Tshituka, who will be equally scary here.

This is probably a close game; Tiatia has promised to make Rodney Parade a fortress for the weaker sides, and while calling the Sharks “weak” isn’t fair or accurate, the reality is that they aren’t invincible; as a team, they’ve been marred by inconsistency and a lack of depth, so who wins this will come down to which pack wins the breakdown and gains possession.

Key Matchup: Two internationals, Aaron Wainwright and Vincent Tshituka, will aim to carry the ball over the line with their strong physical presences. Expect opposing defenders to focus on taking them down specifically.

Players to Watch: Fine Inisi makes his first start for the hosts, and will need to be fast to break lines and make scores. Edwill van der Merwe is playing the less familiar position of fullback, but with his footwork, he could make some dangerous counterattacks.

Predicted Score: Dragons 24 – 21 Sharks. Maybe I’m just being sentimental and optimistic, as I genuinely think the Dragons can do this and they realistically need to to invigorate their squad going forward. Both sides can be dangerous at the breakdown, and they’ve elected to maximise size to achieve this. It’ll come down to whether the Dragons can shake their losing mentality or whether the Sharks can end the away drought.

Munster vs Cardiff

Fixtures like these are the reason Cardiff needed that win over the Lions last week; while they can certainly win against Munster at home, away is a different story. Munster are incredibly hard to beat at Thomond Park, and while they may be missing Craig Casey and Tadhg Beirne, they are a side that can more than match Cardiff on defence and overpower them physically, which is never a fun time for the capital side. The visitors have never won here in 11 attempts, though there are ways they could turn this around.

If they’re going to overcome the hosts’ physicality, they’ll need to win at the breakdown through Alex Mann and Dan Thomas. Maintaining possession forces Munster on the defence, where they are very strong, but players like Tom Bowen and Josh Adams will frustrate them out wide. Johan Mulder might fancy his chances to attack out of the scrum too; if they keep the ball moving fast, they should be able to score a few tries, though the lack of Ben Thomas will hurt their kicking options.

They’ll need to survive the scrum and maintain discipline too, which will be no easy task given Cardiff’s persistent weaknesses in this area. But with players like Ioan Lloyd and Taine Basham coming off the bench, they should at least be consistent in attack all game. Given how well-rounded a side Munster are, Cardiff can’t really afford a slip-up anywhere, as the world-class Jack Crowley and physical presence of Thomas Ahern and Gavin Coombes will gladly take advantage of missed opportunities.

Key Matchup: Alun Lawrence, arguably Cardiff’s most underrated player with his excellent carrying and persistent defence, against Gavin Coombes, Ireland international who has a similar reputation among Munster fans.

Players to Watch: Jacob Beetham makes a rare start for Cardiff and will aim to match Cameron Winnett’s consistency in the position. Similarly, Ethan Coughlan will try to maintain the pace and footwork of Craig Casey, to keep Munster’s tempo out of the breakdown.

Predicted Score: Munster 28 – 14 Cardiff. Not an easy fixture for the visitors, and a more realistic goal would be to come away with some sort of bonus point. Munster are a contender for the top 4, and while their lack of experience might mean they fall short of that goal, they have more than enough power to put Cardiff to the sword. Winning something from this will be a statement from Cardiff.